Climate Change-Driven Water Stress on Tigris River Basin Streamflow in Iraq and Possible Adaptation Strategies

Introduction

Climate change is of mounting concern worldwide, and many regions are already beginning to experience its effects. Natural climate shifts have been exacerbated by human-driven actions, most prominently through fossil fuel consumption, deforestation, and greenhouse effects. In light of these challenges, the question, "How will climate change impact water resources in Northeastern Iraq?" was posed. Asking this question is important because the region is already experiencing shifts in climate. Iraq, in particular, is vulnerable to climate change, given its location and existing environmental conditions. In reference to the Middle East, Abbas et al. highlight that "the region is experiencing climate change to a degree higher than generally reported elsewhere" and that water scarcity challenges are already impacting Iraq (2018, 1). Further, the Tigris River Basin and other river systems in Iraq are critical water resources. How significant surface water resources are impacted by climate change directly relates to agricultural, economic, and water use scenarios.

The purpose of this study was to examine both current and expected climate change trends in Iraq, specific to its impact on the state's water resources. The goal was to build a more robust understanding of what is currently and what is anticipated to happen to Iraq's water resources within the current century. The secondary goal was to better understand what adaptation strategies would hold more promise of success. Lastly, the goal was to understand how surface water loss and water insecurity in Iraq, imposed by climate change, might impact the region more broadly. 

This paper argues that Iraq is already experiencing significant water challenges related to the Tigris River Basin due to climate change. It further contends that Iraq's agriculture and socioeconomic fabric will be significantly impacted by water stress on the Tigris River within the current century. Finally, it argues that a multi-faceted approach to include rainwater harvesting, drought-resistant crops, programs for farmers, and sediment-reducing strategies, in conjunction with regional considerations, will be necessary to adapt to water stress scenarios. 

The paper first offers background on Iraq and a broad overview of the literature on the matter. Data on the meteorological implications of climate change in Iraq follows. The next section discusses those implication's impact on Iraq's agriculture. Finally, regional complications and potential adaptation strategies are discussed—the paper ends with an analysis, recommendation, and conclusion.

Background

Water insecurity is an ever-growing human security concern globally, and climate change is expected to further exacerbate water challenges. Shifts in climate are linked to flood, drought, intensified weather systems, and natural disasters. Additionally, a shortage of water resources can lead to food insecurity, conflict, and mass migration. Ali et al. underscore the concern for future water challenges and highlight that “37 countries by 2025 will have a shortage of water for all basic needs” and point to reservoirs as crucial places of significance in terms of strategies for countries where water resources are limited (2020, 351). Iraq is one such country.

Iraq is a predominantly Muslim country situated in the northern region of the Middle East. Six neighboring countries border it: Turkey to the north, Syria and Jordan to the west, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to the south, and Iran to the east. Topographically, Iraq hugs a network of river basins that feed into its two primary water lifelines, the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers (Al-Hasani 2019, 9). The area between these two rivers is historically referred to as Mesopotamia and holds a rich history of civilization.

Figure 1: Iraq Physiography (Atlas: Syria and Iraq 2016, 10)

The streamflow of these primary water sources is largely impacted by melting snow in the northern mountain regions of Iraq in the spring (Al-Hasani 2019, 9), and the Tigris River is Iraq’s primary water source for the country’s agricultural needs. There are five main tributary river basins that flow into the Tigris River Basin: The Al-Adhaim, Diyala, Khbour, Greater Zab, and Lesser Zab river basins (Abbas et al. 2018, 4). The latter two account for 50-60 percent of the Tigris River streamflow (Abbas et al. 2018, 4). At one time, Iraq was considered one of the richest countries due to its wealth of water resources (Ali et al. 2020, 252). Unfortunately, modern-day climate change is putting that wealth at substantial risk.

Literature Overview

Approximately twenty peer-reviewed journal articles were reviewed, and of those, nine were deemed relevant to the research question. The literature overwhelmingly agrees that Iraq is already experiencing the negative impacts of climate change in the form of streamflow changes in the Tigris River Basin and its tributary river basins to the northeast. There was agreement among sources that agriculture is and will be further impacted by water insecurity in Iraq. Still, some debate existed on the degree to which agricultural challenges will shape Iraq's overall response to water insecurity challenges. The literature presented a variety of possible adaptation solutions, ranging from a shift to drought-resistant crop varieties, landcover to reduce sediment and runoff, modified dam designs, regional cooperation, and rainwater harvesting. The literature discussed climate change and water insecurity mainly related to the Tigris River. The Euphrates River was not typically mentioned. Further, the literature made clear that additional studies and data on Iraq's water supply are necessary as a lack of information was a common theme.

Meteorological Implications of Climate Change in Iraq

Climate change is already impacting water resources in Iraq through the Tigris River streamflow. A case study example can be seen in the recent 2007-2009 Fertile Crescent Drought, which caused an 80 percent decrease in sub-basin precipitation (Mohammed and Scholz 2018, 4) and triggered severe drought followed by double the typical rainfall in southern Iraq (Al-Khafaji and Al-Chalabi 2019, 1). The primary reasons behind streamflow changes are dam construction to the north, shifts in temperature and precipitation due to climate change, and sediment fluctuations. 

Dam construction can pose a challenge not only to streamflow further south but also in generating accurate assessments of climate change-induced streamflow variability as "human intervention" can muddy the "natural hydrological cycle" (Al-Hasani 2019, 24). However, while dam construction in the north does have some impact on Tigris River streamflow. Mohammed and Scholz conducted a study on the climate versus dam construction relationship in the Lower Zab River Basin. They found that "climate change has a more extensive impact on the hydrological characteristics of the streamflow than anthropogenic intervention [i.e., dams]" (2018, 1). The Lower Zab River is a major tributary to the Tigris River Basin. Iraq's physical location and arid environment put it at higher risk to climate sensitivity. Even small changes can have profound effects on their river systems. 

Temperatures in many parts of the world are increasing. However, Iraq's temperature is rising at an alarming rate exceeding that of the average global rate, and climate models predict a continued increasing trend in the coming years (Salman et al. 2020, 2). Osman and Abdellatif state that greenhouse gases are significant contributors to increased global surface temperatures and warn of model predictions that show temperature increases above 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the current century (2019, 197). That may not seem like a huge change, but it's enough to profoundly affect environmental systems and cross lines of no return in many cases. The planet hangs in a delicate balance, and seemingly small changes can throw it out of balance.

Precipitation shifts are also appearing globally, and worrisome changes are occurring in Iraq. These shifts create an unstable balance that produces both increased precipitation and flooding, and severe drought. Osman and Abdellatifunderscored a predicted 25-65 percent reduction in streamflow in the winter and spring months, followed by an autumn increase greater than 60 percent (2019, 208). Alwan et al. pointed to Iraq's record winter rainfall in 2019 that caused significant flooding and displaced many families from several villages in the Maysan and Wasit provinces (2020, 2). Additionally, Al-Hasani indicates that the river-precipitation relationship in Iraq has changed, and streamflow of the Tigris River Basin has become more sensitive to precipitation than in the past, which has significant implications in the face of climate change (2019, 7). But it's drought conditions that seem to be the more substantial threat in Iraq. 

Iraq's most generous rainfall typically occurs between December – February in northeastern Iraq (Osman and Abdellatif 2019, 198), and it's that precipitation that has the most profound effect on the Tigris River streamflow. The rural mountainous northeast is less populated while cities are in the warmer and drier areas downstream. Water scarcity becomes more severe as water moves downstream and evaporates, impacting a greater portion of the population (Abbas et al. 2018, 10). While flooding events are of concern, water challenges will become more pronounced. Osman and Abdellatif underscore that the combination of increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased evapotranspiration is projected to reduce water availability by 10-30 percent in dry regions (2019, 197). Such conditions are a recipe for disaster in terms of human security and Iraqi citizens' overall wellbeing and livelihoods.

According to Al-Khafaji and Al-Chalabi, precipitation and runoff are anticipated to decrease significantly, by 12.5 – 30 percent, between 2021-2040 around the Tigris River (2019, 1). They describe climate change as being "reflected in the characteristics of watershed hydrology, such as streamflow and sediment yield, and can manifest as a long period of drought followed by extensive flooding over a short time period" (2019, 1). That will have a profound impact on growing sediment challenges within Iraq's river basins. Current sedimentation issues are also negatively impacting the Lesser Zab River through a 25% reduction in storage capacity (Ali et al. 2020, 351). Climate shifts in Iraq are impacting its rivers in a multitude of ways.

Indeed, higher temperatures and decreased precipitation lead to a troublesome cycle of water evaporation. Evapotranspiration has negative implications for both soil and surface water. Salman et al. emphasize that in the Middle East, "recent climate changes due to global warming have seriously aggravated the issue of water scarcity" (2020, 2). Iraq is at a higher risk for aggravated water insecurity due to its already arid environment, its reliance on the Tigris River, and the importance of Tigris River streamflow for its agricultural production. Research shows that Iraq is expected to experience a significant precipitation reduction impacting blue (accessible, streamflow and groundwater) and green waters (indirect, soil moisture for agriculture) soon (2049-2069) (Abbas et al. 2018, 1). That is a troublesome prediction for Iraq's farmers.

Agricultural and Socioeconomic Implications of Drought

Iraq's population is growing, and with that comes increased food needs. Al-Hasani highlights Iraq's largely irrigated agriculture, particularly along the Tigris River, and underscores the high demands of crop production as a major factor in water use and consumption (2019, 23). Continued population growth will only exacerbate both water consumption and use for food production. Changes in soil moisture and river water evaporation could have detrimental effects on the relationship between crop water availability and crop water demand. Sadly, the Tigris and Euphrates rivers' water levels are only a third of usual capacity and are expected to suffer further water loss over the current century (Osman and Abdellatif 2019, 198). Because the Tigris River serves as the primary water source for Iraq's agriculture, both farmers' livelihoods and much of their food supply is in significant danger. But it's not just the Tigris River. Water use from the Diyala River, one of the tributaries to the Tigris River streamflow, encompasses both agricultural and consumption needs (Al-Khafaji and Al-Chalabi 2019, 1). Additional stress put on its streamflow will negatively impact Iraq's agriculture in its own right and be compounded through its relationship with the Tigris River's streamflow.

With expected continued decreases in precipitation, crop water availability in Iraq is also expected to suffer. Salman et al. eluded to availability shortages combined with projected increases in crop water demand as the population increases throughout the century. They underscored the linkage between water stress and food scarcity (2020, 16). In addition, Abbas et al. took it a step further and connected drought with reduced farm production, "especially in the areas of rain-fed crop, which resulted in an observed reduction in farmers' income" (2018, 16). Such losses could lead to lost livelihoods and farmer migration.

In particular, drier months during summer and autumn will be problematic for crop production in Iraq's southern regions, where farming is more prevalent. Water stress intensifies further down the Tigris River, and Salman et al. describe an observed deficit in crop water availability across all the primary irrigated regions year-round, with a slight surplus during the winter rainy season (mostly in the northern mountainous areas) (2020, 8). Decreased water availability for crop production is yet another challenge posed by climate change in Iraq. Crop water availability is expected to fall further as models predict a continued and fast rise in temperatures paired with a sharp decline in precipitation (Salman et al. 2020, 16). Such challenges pose a significant threat to Iraq's crop productivity and food security, on top of worsening water insecurity. Those challenges are troubling enough in their own right, but they also create a concerning domino effect. Less crop yield equals less food for a growing population, but it also drives a wedge in the economy and the livelihoods of Iraq's farmers.  

Iraq's economy is already suffering after years of conflict. Droughts and shortened growing seasons will further exacerbate economic pain, particularly for farmers in the south. (Abbas et al. 2018, 16). Eklund and Thompson explain that "drought by itself is not a natural disaster; it becomes one when the lived effects of the drought are extremely detrimental to local populations," and they call such scenarios "socioeconomic drought" (2017, 2). There is some disagreement, however. Eklund and Thompson differed slightly on agricultural vulnerability to drought in Iraq through a comparison with Syria. They showed that Iraq suffered less during the 2007-2009 drought because they were less reliant on agriculture for food supply due to food imports (2017, 5). That being said, there is a significant consensus that agriculture will be negatively impacted by climate change in Iraq. Further, Iraq has experienced years of unrest, and it has taken a toll on the economy. A loss in farming income will surely exacerbate existing economic pain and could be a potential catalyst for future conflict.

While there is some disagreement on the extent to which Iraq is reliant on agriculture-related income in the average rural household, the social dimension of crop loss underscores Iraq's vulnerability to climate change because it compounds pain points. Abbas et al. highlighted that, "in light of the sharp decline in oil prices and the increase in terrorist operations which have led to the deterioration of the economy, institutional structures, and individual capabilities; Iraq is unable to manage the current climate variability and will struggle with projected changes due to insufficient financial resources required for adaptation and mitigation" (2018, 16). Livelihoods are already being eroded, and the future looks even grimmer for farmers. 

But it doesn't end with socioeconomic pain. Drier, hotter conditions also cause cropland to become more arid, as has occurred in parts of Iran (Salman et al. 2020, 16). That can create the added challenge of land degradation and soil not rich enough to support current crop structures. Further, the Iraqi government has been busy dealing with decades of conflict. As a result, state-level policies related to water resources and climate change scenarios have not yet been developed (Eklund and Thompson 2017, 4). Not only is Iraq expected to experience water insecurity and socioeconomic drought, but as a state, it's unprepared to deal with and adapt to further water challenges and climate change. Such unpreparedness doesn't bode well for citizen morale as pain points become more profound and more widespread.

Complicating Regional Connections

Water resources in Iraq are further complicated by competing interests regionally. The Tigris River Basin flows from the north, and its tributaries are shared to varying degrees with both Turkey and Iran. Al-Hasani detailed that "about 50% of the Tigris River's flow" is tied to several significant tributaries "originating from the Zagros Mountains of Iraq and Iran" with the remaining flow from branches in Turkey (Al-Hasani 2019, 10). Further, Turkey has constructed a variety of water-related structures since 1977 under the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), including irrigation systems, dams, and hydroelectric power plants, all of which heavily rely on and use up water resources in both the Tigris and Euphrates rivers (Eklund and Thompson 2017, 6). Al-Hasani also underscored the significance of Iraq's neighbors' actions in terms of dam construction in both Iran and Turkey (2019, 12-13). Such structures have an important impact downstream within both Iraq and Syria and can have a "direct negative impact on irrigated agriculture and the entire ecosystem of the Mesopotamian Marshlands" (Al-Hasani 2019, 12-13). The climate change adaptations and strategies implemented by Turkey and Iran will directly impact the degree of water stress felt in Iraq. Any plan developed in Iraq must take its neighbor's potential actions into consideration. 

Indeed, consideration should also be given to precipitation patterns, Tigris River Basin streamflow inside Iraq's borders, and how its neighbors handle climate change and water insecurity within their borders. Neighboring states contend to a large degree with similar environments and climate challenges. Salman et al. pointed to the relationship between rising temperatures on northern Saudi Arabian crop water demand. They underscored that even a one-degree increase in temperature might translate to a 2.9 percent increase in crop water demand (2020, 15). They argued that temperature increases have a more profound impact than precipitation changes on agriculture (2020, 15). Regardless, while crop water demand, temperature, and precipitation in Saudi Arabia won't directly impact the Tigris River flow in Iraq, it can serve as a helpful study on similar climate struggles in the region. 

While rainfall and snowmelt are the primary sources for Tigris River Basin streamflow, any future hydro-engineering or dam construction related to climate change response in Turkey or Iran could directly impact the streamflow inside Iraqi borders. The connectedness of the Tigris River water lifeline throughout the region eludes to the importance of hydro-politics. Eklund and Thompson pointed to various negotiations and agreements between Turkey, Iraq, and Syria meant to "ensure fair distribution of water resources," but noted that Turkey had violated agreements on multiple occasions (2017, 6). Iraq is positioned least favorably when it comes to the Tigris and Euphrates river basins (Eklund and Thompson 2017, 6). Any violations in the future as climate change and water stress intensify will surely ignite tension between the states as Iraq is, in many ways, positioned to suffer directly from any water-related actions taken in Iran, Turkey, and to a smaller degree, Syria.

Potential Catalyst to Conflict

But tensions over policy, negotiations, and agreement violations aren't the only sources for tension and conflict regarding water resources. Internal strife and civil war are also of concern. When livelihoods are upended, and poverty ensues, growing disenchantment around opportunities and wellbeing can sometimes provide a prime breeding ground for civil war, unrest, and extremism. It can birth refugees and mass migrations. Sometimes, it can take down governments. Each situation is unique, as witnessed during the Arab Spring.

Syria's civil war is an interesting study, and there is debate around whether or not the 2007-2009 Fertile Crescent Drought catalyzed Syria's 2011 uprising and civil war. Eklund and Thompson investigated its impact by comparing drought vulnerability in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey (Eklund and Thompson 2017, 1). The drought impacted all three states, but Syria was not the most severely affected (Eklund and Thompson 2017, 1). However, that doesn't mean that drought, socioeconomic or otherwise, isn't a catalyst for conflict. How a state fares in the face of drought conditions is in part determined by the governmental response, the extent of existing infrastructure, and resource management strategies in the private sector (Eklund and Thompson 2017, 1). Each area contributes to the level of socioeconomic pain felt by a state's citizens during a drought crisis, as does its overall reliance on agriculture. 

In general, Iraq and the Middle East are more vulnerable to climate change than other regions of the world. On top of that, Iraq has suffered from a great deal of violence and conflict in recent years. Many experts argue that future wars in the region won't be religious or political but will instead be tied to water resources (Osman and Abdellatif 2019, 198). Such conflict might arise between states over shared water lifelines like the Tigris River. They might be internal as a result of lost opportunity, wellbeing, and socioeconomic pain. When it comes to smart strategies for Iraq to adapt to and face climate change implications, it's complicated. Whatever actions are taken, thought must be given to the actions of Iraq's neighbors, government involvement and infrastructure, the private sector, and agriculture.

Potential Adaptation Strategies

Unlike other water-stressed regions such as Uganda and other parts of Africa, Iraq's arid environment makes water insecurity a different kind of challenge to manage. While there are many possible adaptation strategies for Iraq regarding climate change and water insecurity challenges, additional research is much needed. Some of the more promising potential strategies include modifying dam designs to include sediment gates, land cover management to reduce soil erosion and reservoir sediment, rainwater harvesting, growing drought-resistant crops, and aid programs for farmers. However, no single method alone will be enough to combat the challenges ahead. Much will depend on Iraq's neighboring states' actions and the implications of those actions on Iraq's Tigris River Basin streamflow and tributary river systems. 

Arid regions such as Iraq and the Middle East are particularly prone to sediment challenges, and sediment has already become a problem for tributary river capacity, further impacting Tigris River streamflow. Sediment is the most significant challenge for the Dokan Dam reservoir, and findings in the Mosul Dam reservoir indicate that sediment impacts pump station intake (Al-Khafaji and Al-Chalabi 2019, 2). Unfortunately, sediment is a problem expected to worsen. Al-Khafaji and Al-Chalabi argue that changing dam designs to include sediment-catching gates would be helpful (2019, 19). But they highlight the "cooperation between Iraq and Iran is needed for hydrologic data exchange, planning for sediment mitigation, and justice in water usage during the dry and wet seasons" (2019, 19). Additionally, land cover management designed to prevent dangerous soil erosion levels and runoff during times of heavy rainfall is another potential strategy to reduce further sediment challenges in tributary basins (Al-Khafaji and Al-Chalabi 2019, 2). Ali et al. agreed that sediment-reducing systems will become critically needed and underscored the need for additional research around current sediment accumulation (2020, 351-352). Sediment accumulation is already creating cause for concern in Iraq and reduces reservoir water capacity. Lost capacity will have painful impacts in times of drought and water stress for the state.

Rainwater harvesting is another potential strategy to combat water insecurity. Alwan et al. define the practice as "the collection and management of rainwater runoff to increase water availability for domestic and agricultural use, as well as ecosystem sustenance" (Alwan et al. 2020, 2). Such practices could offer alternative water storage capacity for times of drought when sediment challenges decrease reservoir stores. They also suggest that rainwater harvesting could serve as a helpful resource for semi-arid regions. In particular, it could be a possible strategy to combat agricultural challenges in drought-stricken areas of Iraq (2020, 2). There is the potential for rainwater harvesting to help mitigate imbalances between crop water availability and crop water demand. Perhaps snowmelt harvesting in the northeastern mountainous regions might also be a helpful partner to rainwater harvesting. More research is needed. However, it does seem clear that the extreme polar nature of anticipated precipitation patterns expected to occur in the near future warrant a diversification of combatants.

Rainwater harvesting is an older technique that has been a popular suggestion in other water-stressed parts of the world, such as parts of Africa. Iraq could also use study cases from places like India and Lebanon (Alwan et al. 2020, 2) to understand better what may or may not work well for the Middle East's more arid regions. But as Alwan et al. underscore, the success or failure of any rainwater harvesting system implementation in Iraq will largely rest on the location(s) chosen for harvesting sites (2020, 2). More research is needed to better understand what site locations would be most promising for Iraq. A wealth of research is necessary to account for financing and implementation on a governmental level.

Attacking water insecurity in Iraq at the farming level while being mindful and inclusive of water stress's social impact also holds promise. Abbas et al. highlighted the effect of climate change on farmers in the southern regions of Iraq who will suffer the more severe downstream shortages of the Tigris River streamflow. They described the impact on the social fabric and suggested that solutions should aid farmers in critical need of adaptation methods, including a shift toward more drought-resistant crop production (Abbas et al. 2018, 16). Salman et al. agreed that farmers are in dire need of help if their livelihoods are to survive the ill effects of climate change. They underscored that increased crop water demand in irrigation and energy would cost more and leave farmers with less profit (2020, 16). They suggested improved practices, adjustments to crop schedules, and technology investments to curb the hit on farmers who are typically poor, to begin with (2020, 16). Such concern for livelihood is essential. If farmers become further marginalized, many could migrate or become disenchanted with their circumstances. Disenchantment, lack of opportunity, and poverty are often a precursor to conflict and unrest.

Winter crops like wheat and barley are typical in Iraqi farming communities (Abbas et al. 2018, 16). Diversifying the type of crops across seasons could be impactful. However, doing so would require educational programs to teach farmers how to rotate in tomatoes, beans, potatoes, and other summer crops (Abbas et al. 2018, 16). Additionally, programs designed to help farmers understand climate change, water stress, and beneficial coping methods to increase mental health and wellbeing in the face of economic losses might be a helpful inclusion.

Analysis and Recommendation

Throughout the research process, it became clear that Iraq’s water resources are and will continue to be most significantly impacted by drought and flooding, with a more considerable emphasis on precipitation decreases, sediment, runoff, and desertification challenges, as well as a painful hit to agriculture and socioeconomic wellbeing. On top of that, Iraq’s water stress will be significantly impacted by the actions of its neighbors, Turkey, and Iran. Therefore, any solutions or adaptation plans will likely be highly complex yet flexible enough to pivot as the broader challenge of climate change, and water insecurity remains fluid and everchanging. 

Of the various possible adaptation strategies, there seems to be no clear winner. It will likely take all of them combined and more to address the challenges facing Iraq successfully. Sediment gates, dams, landcover management, rainwater harvesting, growing drought-resistant crops, and aid programs for farmers combined are only half the battle as they don’t address a lack of governmental programs, infrastructure, or multinational agreements. Additionally, not a lot of research on the subject of water insecurity in Iraq has been conducted. A more robust understanding of exactly how much sediment exists and where is needed. A stronger sense of exactly which locations would be best suited for rainwater harvesting is necessary. A stronger understanding of farmer experiences and what drought-resistant summer crops would yield the best results is needed.

Additionally, Iraqi citizens must play a significant part in both research and any possible solutions. They understand the culture and region better than anyone else. They have their finger on the pulse of what kinds of solutions would have the most substantial buy-in from communities, tribes, and religious organizations. 

The hope is that this study can contribute to the knowledge and understanding of potential adaptation methods to water insecurity in Iraq. A more robust understanding of the impact of climate change and surface water realities in Iraq and what information is currently missing can shed light on what solutions have greater potential for success. The hope is also to serve as a valuable lesson and case study for the region and the broader world as a whole. The greater the understanding of what challenges climate change brings, the more prepared humanity can be as a species to survive and overcome similar challenges with as little devastation and suffering as possible. Strategies implemented in Iraq could, successful or not, serve as guidance to other states experiencing water insecurity issues due to shifting climates. Securing Iraq’s water resources, or the failure to do so will have a lasting impact on other countries directly tied to Iraq’s river systems, economy, and resources.

Conclusion

The answer to the question, "How will climate change impact water resources in Northeastern Iraq?" is multifaceted. The research has clearly indicated that indeed Iraq is already experiencing adverse effects of climate change on its water lifeline, the Tigris River, and its tributary river systems. It's also clear that Iraq is expected to continue to bear the brunt of climate change to a more considerable degree than much of the globe. While it's unfortunate that Iraq is expected to be one of the harder-hit states, there is also an opportunity to learn a lot from Iraq's successes and failures in the face of water insecurity. Regardless of the outcome, the broader global arena should pay attention and care about what actions Iraq does or does not take to adapt to its changing environment. What happens in Iraq is likely to repeat itself elsewhere, and certainly, any ensuing water-related conflicts or migrations will not occur in a vacuum. The broader international arena will surely feel some of its pressure.

Much more attention and study around climate change in Iraq are needed to fully understand what solutions pose the greatest chances of success. Al-Hasani underscored Iraq's vulnerability to climate change and stated, "Increased average temperature, recurrent drought, more frequent dust storms, and less or more erratic precipitation are among the most significant climatic changes facing Iraq" (2019, 8). How Iraq responds to climate change, successful or not, will serve as a valuable case study for the region and more broadly worldwide.

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